Lance McCullers: The Unknown Ace
Every baseball fan knows Clayton Kershaw, Madison Bumgarner, Jake Arrieta and Chris Sale. How many of them know the name Lance McCullers Jr? My guess would be not enough. However if the 23 year old continues to pitch the way he did in his first two seasons in the league, he could be a top pitcher in the American League and eventually a name all baseball fans will know. I am calling it now, he will have his name up with the elites before we know it.
At first glance, his stats are good but nothing really catches your eye. Allow me to break down his dominance through his young career. McCullers has posted a 3.22 ERA in his first 36 games of his career (spread out across two seasons) which ranks 17th in the MLB during that time and 3rd in the AL behind Aaron Sanchez and Justin Verlander. His 3.16 FIP ranks 13th in the MLB since 2015 putting him above Zack Greinke, Johnny Cueto, Matt Harvey, Jon Lester and Chris Archer. This puts him in company with Stephen Strasburg, Jake Arrieta, Max Scherzer and many more stars.
That FIP would also rank 3rd in the AL behind only Chris Sale and Corey Kluber… wow. His 2016 FIP ranked 8th in the MLB and his 2016 K/9 ranked 3rd behind only Jose Fernandez and Yu Darvish. Talk about elite company. His 10.2 K/9 through his first two years is higher than any single season Clayton Kershaw had in his first 6 years. Lastly, his 0.65 HR/9 since coming into the league ranks first in the AL and 6th in the entire MLB. And let’s not forget, McCullers turned 23 during the offseason. The former top 100 prospect has dominated the majors since coming up in 2015. His pitches are electric and he is fun to watch. He can pop the gun, hitting up to 98 MPH with his fastball and following that by making hitters look foolish with either his deadly changeup or monstrous curveball.
McCullers is only getting better. His numbers were very impressive last season despite having a BABIP of .383. That number is unsustainable and will drop in 2017, meaning the former first round draft pick has no way to go but up (or down in the sense of his ERA). His hard contact percentage since his MLB debut ranks 11th in the league, and his soft contact percentage ranks 9th over that span. This means that he is not allowing hitters to square him up often and he is forcing weak contact at a rate worse than only 8 other pitchers in the MLB. Though there is one concern for the youngster, we can't ignore his 3.8 BB/9 which ranks 5th worst in the league since 2015. We see that number improving but we do feel walks will always be an issue for him. However, his otherwise elite stats all the way across the board will draw complaints from no one. All things considered, Lance McCullers may be just a full season or two from being a cy young candidate, and I truly believe that.
