What to Expect From 2016's Biggest Busts in 2017

Well, 2016 was certainly a strange year for baseball. The Chicago Cubs won their first World Series in over a decade. Justin Verlander was an ace for the first time since 2012 only to place second in Cy Young voting to Rick Porcello, meaning David Price was not the best pitcher in Fenway. Brian Dozier hit 20 more home runs than 2015 MVP Bryce Harper and at 40 years old, David Ortiz was nothing shy of what he was in his prime. Last year held some disappointing seasons to say the least (along with some incredible breakout years) causing major frustration for fantasy owners. Will the busts of 2016 be the sleepers of 2017?

Zack Greinke

2013 - 2015: 51 wins, 15 losses, 2.30 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 7.3 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 1.9 BB/9, 8.3 K/9

2016 : 13 wins, 7 losses, 4.37 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 9.1 H/9, 1.3 HR/9, 2.3 BB/9, 7.6 K/9

After signing a $200 million deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks, Greinke did nothing but disappoint throughout the entirety of the 2016 season. He pitched 26 games, the least he’s pitched in a season since 2006 and pitched to his second highest ERA in a season (5.80 in 2005, 21 years old). He saw a drastic change in almost every stat possible, and not for the better. Not to mention, he’s pitching in a hitter friendly park. So are Greinke’s struggles a legitimate concern for fantasy owners? Yes, they should be. However, should owners give up on and avoid the $200 million man? Probably not. Sure, we shouldn’t hold our breath waiting for the return of 2015 Zack Greinke, but if the 33 year old can stay healthy, expect a bounce back year. Though his BAbip was actually slightly lower than his career average, he was giving up the long ball at an unsustainable rate (14% HR/FB). That along with slight increase in fly balls and a decrease in ground balls resulted in a poor season for Greinke. If he can bring down his fly ball rate (which we believe he can), 2016 Greinke will be a forgotten man. Expect a mid to low 3 ERA, however a return to the sub 3 ERA range may be a stretch for the former Cy Young Winner.

Prediction: 14 wins, 9 losses, 3.40 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 8.2 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 2.1 BB/9, 8.1 K/9

Gerrit Cole

2013 - 2015: 40 wins, 20 losses, 3.07 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 8.1 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 2.2 BB/9, 8.5 K/9

2016: 7 wins, 10 losses, 3.88 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 10.2 H/9, 0.5 HR/9, 2.8 BB/9, 7.6 K/9

At 25 years old, fantasy owners expected big things from Cole after 2015’s 4th place Cy Young finish. However, 2016 was filled with DL stints causing him to miss 12 starts.He allowed 10+ baserunners in 8 of his 21 games, was striking out batters at his lowest rate since breaking into the majors and walking nearly 3 batters per 9 innings. Fantasy owners can breath a sigh of relief. When he was healthy we did see glimpses of the stud we drafted, lowering his ERA to 2.73 in August. Unfortunately, the rest of the season was a mess. However, we can’t seem to ignore the fact Cole had a 2.73 ERA in early August. In his remaining 5 games (which obviously he was not completely healthy for) he went 0-4 with an 8.37 ERA. Cole started 13 of his first 17 games with an ERA below 3.15. So are his season stats impressive? Not one bit. Yet, it appears his last 5 games of not pitching at full health seemed to mask what actually was another solid season for the youngster. Definitely expect a solid 2017 season from Gerrit Cole that could see him boast a low 3 to even sub 3 ERA. At just 26 years old, his best season of his young career may still be in the making.

Prediction: 16 wins, 8 losses, 3.12 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 7.4 H/9, 0.5 HR/9, 2.4 BB/9, 8.7 K/9

Bryce Harper

2015: .330/.460/.649, 42 HR, 99 RBI, 118 runs, 38 doubles, 124 BB

2016: .243/.373/.441, 24 HR, 86 RBI, 84 runs, 24 doubles, 108 BB

Coming into the 2016 season as one of the most valuable players in fantasy, Bryce Harper was easily the most disappointing player taken in the first round of every draft. He batted a sub par .243, hit a pedestrian 24 home runs, scored 24 less runs and didn’t break the 30 double mark like he did for the first time in his career the previous season. He was a shell of the MVP we saw in 2015. Can we expect Bryce to return to that form? That may be expecting a little too much out of the 24 year old as 2015 seems to be the outlier in his 5 year career. What some called a bad year is actually the second best of his short career (behind his ridiculous 2015) to some standards. His 24 home runs seem to be around what he possessed for power in his previous seasons (22 in 2012, 20 in 2013, 13 in 2014). As far as his 24 doubles in 2016, they, like his home runs appear to be on par with his previous years excluding 2015 (26 in 2012, 24 in 2013, 10 in 2014). His .243 average is concerning, however not too concerning given his .279 career average. While his 2015 may not be repeatable in the 2017 season (or maybe not ever again), we can definitely expect an upgrade from 2016 and his previous years given his young age and superstar potential. Harper is certainly worth an early draft pick due to his high ceiling especially in keeper leagues, however if you are expecting another MVP season you may and likely will be disappointed.

Prediction: .283/.406/.544, 31 HR, 94 RBI, 92 runs, 29 doubles, 111 BB

David Price

2015: 18 wins, 5 losses, 2.45 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 7.8 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 1.9 BB/9, 9.2 K/9

2016: 17 wins, 9 losses, 3.99 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 8.9 H/9. 1.2 HR/9, 2 BB/9, 8.9 K/9

After signing his $217 million contract he was the preseason favorite to win the Cy Young award. With the protection of the Red Sox league leading offense Price was looking easily at a 20 win season. However the pressure of pitching in Boston and pitching at Fenway park made for a tough season for the lefty. Though it was overall a mediocre year, for Price’s standards and how much the Red Sox coughed up to sign him, it was a disaster. It was only the second time his ERA was above a 3.50 in his career and his WHIP, H/9 and HR/9 were all career highs. These are all very concerning numbers. Is Price a safe pick for this upcoming season? We are high on him. His BAbip was an unlucky .310 which is more than likely to reduce significantly back to his career .291 or at least the league average of .298. We like that his BB/9 was the 4th lowest of his career (5 years worse than 2016) and that his K/9 was the 3rd highest of his career. David’s ERA was sitting at 4.74 through his first 17 games which he brought down to 3.33 over his remaining 18. All things considered, things look promising for Price in 2017.

Prediction: 19 wins, 8 losses, 3.28 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 8.1 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 1.7 BB/9, 9.1 K/9

Chris Archer

2015: 12 wins, 13 losses, 3.23 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 7.4 H/9, 0.8 HR/9, 2.8 BB/9, 10.7 K/9

2016: 9 wins, 19 losses, 4.02 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 8.2 H/9, 1.3 HR/9 3.0 BB/9, 10.4 K/9

Chris Archer has been one of the most consistent pitchers in the majors since 2013. However his fantasy value has been hard to predict. Between 2013 - 2015 we saw him post ERAs of 3.22, 3.33 and 3.23. Unfortunately for him, in those 3 years he has been punished by the poor Tampa Bay Rays team and has a combined record of 31-29. In 2015 he transformed from a good pitcher to a great pitcher. He struck out 252 batters and earned himself an all star appearance. The righty has arguably the best slider in baseball. In 2015 his combination of strikeouts, innings pitched and above average ERA made for a huge breakout fantasy season, despite his poor 12-13 record. Sadly for Archer owners (myself included), the Ray’s ace struggled mightily. It is hard to pinpoint exactly where his struggles are stemming from. Most of his stats were slightly worse than his previous year, however we do not see enough of a change to make for an increase of 0.79 in his ERA. His BAbip was about the same as usual which is almost league average, hitters were not making harder contact at a much higher rate (just a .6% increase which is close to microscopic), his strikeout pitch was still working and he was even inducing ground balls at an increased rate. So where was he going wrong? I was able to find the main difference between 2015 and 2016 after looking deeper into the stats. He saw a significant increase in his HR/FB%. Archer was allowing home runs on 12.2% of all fly balls hit. In 2015 that number stood at 7.7% and the MLB league average is 8%. The cause of this major increase in dingers is unclear, (though a 1.2 MPH decrease in average fastball velocity may be a factor) and it leaves us in a tough spot. The home runs are likely to regress back to his past seasons. However with not much change in any other stat, it is tough to say for sure if that number will reduce back below the league average. If Archer can avoid the long ball, his 28 year old season looks to be one that will rank him in top 10 AL pitchers despite the high chance of a losing record. Still, we must be cautious about him, if that number reduces yet still remains above the league average it is safe to say he may not return to his 2015 ways. We will certainly see an improvement for Chris Archer in the 2017 season but the extent of that improvement is hard to predict. Hurt by the fact he is more than likely going to end with a losing record, to return to a top fantasy option we must see a major improvement in his ERA. Archer is the definition of a high risk high reward fantasy player coming into the new season, but we like his chances of a bounce back season.

Prediction: 11 wins, 12 losses, 3.28 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 7.5 H/9, .9 HR/9, 2.9 BB/9, 10.2 K/9