Rivalry Night: UNC vs Duke, UCLA vs Oregon
If you’ve watched ESPN for really any amount of time this week, you will have seen that UNC will be playing Duke and that Oregon will be playing UCLA. Not only are these games rivalries but all four teams are title contenders. In fact, I personally believe that UNC and UCLA will make the final four, assuming they don’t end up in the same region. Duke and Oregon are two of a handful of teams that I could see cutting down the nets so I am very excited to watch both of these high profile games.
Now I will let it be known that I am a UNC fan. However, although I love the Tar Heels, I am going to try to be as unbiased as I possibly can with my prediction. Anyone who doesn’t avidly follow college basketball might think that UNC would be considered the favorite because of the difference in rankings but that isn’t the case. The line is -2.5 in Duke’s favor and there are a few factors that give Duke that edge. For starters, Duke has a great home court advantage, especially against UNC. I would argue that there are only 1 or 2 better home court advantages than being at Duke playing against the Tar Heels. Beyond that, while Duke may be ranked 18 in the AP poll and 20 on my poll, they still have arguably the best roster on paper in the country. Still though, it doesn’t matter how good your roster is if you can’t play well together.
Duke has been playing well lately and that is because they have switched to a small ball lineup with Jayson Taytum(6’8”) at the 4 and Amile Jefferson(6’9”) at the 5. It has worked well for them so far, but it probably won’t work well for them today. UNC is one of, if not the best rebounding teams in the country and they are by far the best rebounding team in the ACC. If Duke were to run this lineup, it would be very easy for me to say that UNC would win in a dominating fashion. However, I highly doubt that Coach K would run the small ball lineup against the likes of Kennedy Meeks, Isaiah Hicks, and Tony Bradley. The starting lineup wouldn’t change much, but it is a matter of who will play the 5 in this game. It is possible that Harry Giles or Marques Bolden get the nod to start the game at the 5 but that could be risky. Giles hasn’t been playing very much on account of his injury but if he can play the whole game, we could be in for a treat.
Giles is averaging 10.7 points and 9.3 rebounds per 25 minutes so far this season and while it is unlikely that we’ll see Giles play 25 minutes, the combo of him, Jeter, and Bolden could be enough to hang around with UNC on the Glass. That being said, Duke has to hang around on the glass in order to win the game. So let’s assume that don’t get out rebounded by too much, who is going to win in that case? Well it is very tough to call. Both of these teams have a ton of scorers. Both teams can shoot the 3 ball well. The difference maker will be points in the paint. Giles and Jefferson may be a decent duo to try to stay within reach on the glass, but I don’t think those two will be able to stop Meeks and Hicks in the paint. This game is going to have some incredible matchups, including Joel Berry versus Grayson Allen and Justin Jackson versus Jayson Taytum, but neither Jefferson nor Giles will be able to contain Kennedy Meeks. I think we will see UNC feed the paint and Duke force a lot of perimeter shots, resulting in North Carolina winning by a good margin.
In early March, when these two play again, Harry Giles could be getting more playing time and he could be healthier. If that is the case then this game would be very close but because he hasn’t been asked to step into that starter role yet, I don’t think Duke will be able to stop UNC’s frontcourt.
Prediction: UNC wins 91-81.
Although this is not as big of a rivalry as UNC and Duke, there is just as good of a storyline in this game. On one of the first days of Pac 12 conference play, Oregon took down the undefeated UCLA at home with a Dillon Brooks 3-pointer with 0.8 seconds left in the game. Not only are these two teams rivals, but UCLA wants revenge. And now that they have the Ducks on their home court, Leaf and company fully expect to get payback.
There are so many things about this game that I’m excited for. For starters, I want to see the Brooks versus Leaf matchup again. These guys are two of the best forwards in the country and they are both NPOY award candidates.We also have another great matchup between two great passing point guards, Boucher and Ball. Sure, Ball might have a lot larger of an impact on the game but Boucher is still very capable at running the offense. To be honest, the whole game will largely come down to matchups. Neither of these teams are particularly good at rebounding so I expect it to be about even on the boards.
UCLA is the best offensive team in the country and their offense is better than Oregon’s in nearly
every aspect. UCLA also has the edge in defense in the paint, with Welsh and Leaf guarding it heavily. Oregon is going to have be lights out from the perimeter if they want to win this game and they are going to have to play incredible defense on top of that. Oregon does not have the home court advantage that they had in December so this is going to be a whole different ball game. I think it will be close, and I think these two offenses will often trade baskets, but I think Oregon is going to have to rely on their perimeter shooting too much and UCLA will come out with the win.
My Prediction: UCLA wins: 88-82.