Predicting the AL East
The AL east is arguably the best division in all of baseball heading into the 2017 season. In 2016 the division held 4 above .500 teams. This year will more than likely be the same story. This division undoubtedly has the best offense between all the teams. The Blue Jays, Orioles and Red Sox all have top 5 potential offenses in the MLB while the Yankees are just a slight step below. Here’s a breakdown of each team along with our prediction of where they will finish in the final standings:
Tampa Bay Rays
Strength: Pitching rotation
Weakness: Offensive Depth
2016 Finish: 5th place
2017 Finish: 5th place
The Rays are definitely the worst team in the AL East. This team has a few solid players but their overall potential is very limited. After Evan Longoria there is a huge drop off of offensive talent. The difference between Longoria and the team’s next best hitter (Brad Miller) of 2016 is huge. Brad Miller broke out last year with 30 home runs but that does not seem repeatable considering that number was almost three times his previous career high. Along with that, Miller offers nothing in the batting average category. Corey Dickerson may possibly have a bounce back year but that is not nearly enough to change the fact that this offense is going to struggle heavily.
The Ray’s do have a sliver of hope as their rotation is not bad. Chris Archer is an established ace and youngsters Blake Snell and Jake Odorizzi offer decent upside behind him. It also would not surprise me to see Alex Cobb have a bounce back year at 28 years old. Alex Colome closing games out at the back of the bullpen is also a sure thing. With 4 good starters and a top 5 closer in the MLB, the rotation is bound to do some good things this year. However, we expect the offense to spoil a lot of games by the starting pitchers.
Baltimore Orioles
Strength: Offensive Power
Weakness: Starting Rotation
2016 Finish: 2nd place
2017 Finish: 4th place
Baltimore certainly has the tools to be a playoff team. Their lineup is filled with offensive talent from young MVP candidate Manny Machado to Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo, Adam Jones and even Jonathan Schoop. Hyun Soo Kim was good last year and with enough at bats he could definitely take this offense up another notch. With that many weapons in the lineup it will be hard to hold them down. I expect their offense to move up from last years rank of 12 and squeak their way anywhere from 10 to 7.
The Orioles’ rotation is a mystery. Kevin Gausman projects as the opening day starter which says a number about the lack of true aces on the team. Still, Gausman is only 26 and coming off a good year so I do expect a good year from him. However, after their ace the Orioles have no pitchers that are worth a 2 spot on most teams. Chris Tillman is the only one that had a sub 4 ERA in 2016 and it was not much lower, 3.77. The 3, 4 and 5 spots are all uncertain at this point, though we expect Dylan Bundy to grab one. The rotation certainly has its question marks, so hopefully the fully loaded offense will be able to keep up. Expect this team to be in a lot of high scoring games.
New York Yankees
Strength: huge upside from both the offense and rotation
Weakness: young team with no established stars
2016 Finish: 4th place
2017 Finish: 3rd place
The Yankees have a high ceiling coming into the 2017 season but they could certainly fall very short of their potential. They certainly have young talent in Greg Bird, Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge who could lead the charge and make this offense scary. However, the Yankees need their veterans to step up. This includes Jacoby Ellsbury and Matt Holliday. Didi Gregorius is somewhere in between a youngster and a veteran. Yes, he is only 27 years old but he was their best hitter last season and he certainly needs another big year for the Yankees to be successful. Overall, the lineup isn’t exactly jaw dropping but it could very well be a top 15 offense in the MLB. It could also very well be a lower level offense. However we expect it to be above average.
The rotation, like the lineup, is very hit or miss. Tanaka is the clear ace and is as reliable as they come. Following is Pineda. On paper, Pineda has all the tools to be great. Unfortunately, besides for his injury shortened 2014, he has yet to put the pieces together. Pineda is the poster child for this years squad: very high ceiling, very low floor. The last 3 spots in the rotation will likely go to CC Sabathia, Luis Severino and Chad Green/Bryan Mitchell. The final three spots aren’t as bad as they might seem. Sabathia enjoyed some second half success last year while Severino is just 23 years old and has huge upside (he was a top 30 prospect in the minors). And we can’t leave out their absolutely deadly combination of Betances and Chapman in the back of the bullpen. The rotation as a whole is exactly like the lineup: high risk, high reward. Though the starting 5 could be a mess, I see them reaching their potential (or at least coming close) in 2017.
Toronto Blue Jays
Strength: Depth
Weakness: Possible over performances in 2016
2016 Finish: 3rd place
2017 Finish: 2nd place
Though they lost Edwin Encarnacion, the Blue Jays are still filled with talent. They have MVP candidate Josh Donaldson along with sluggers Jose Bautista and Kendrys Morales and veteran shortstop Troy Tulowitzki. Also in the lineup is the underrated yet very solid bat of Devon Travis, who if healthy will be a big breakout candidate in 2017. The offense is well above average and should be a top 10 in the league. Even their lower level hitters such as Melvin Upton Jr. and Russell Martin each hit 20 jacks last season. The offense is a sure thing and will cause havoc in the division.
The Jay’s rotation is also one that could be top 10 in the league. Last season they had three starters boast sub 3.50 ERAs (3.00, 3.18, 3.48) and their ace Aaron Sanchez is just 23 years old. The 2 and 3 spots belong to J.A. Happ and Marco Estrada who are both talented veteran arms. Their number 4 pitcher, Marcus Stroman has ace potential and is just 25 years old. Francisco Liriano will man the 5 spot. Franky at 5 shows the talent and depth of this rotation. It could certainly be a top rotation in the MLB. Closer Roberto Osuna is a 22 year old stud with 2 excellent seasons already on his belt. Expect this rotation (and lineup) to bring it for the entirety of the 2017 season and expect this team to be right up there fighting with Boston for a 1st place finish.
Boston Red Sox
Strength: Lineup depth and front 3 of rotation
Weakness: Pablo Sandoval and Craig Kimbrel’s 2016 struggles
2016 Finish: 1st place
2017 Finish: 1st place
There’s a lot to be said about the Red Sox. The were knocked out of the first round of the playoffs last year after a first place finish. Since then, David Ortiz retired but they traded for ace Chris Sale. The Sox offense is potentially the best in the league. They had 3 players bat over .300 last season and 2 others bat over .280. They had 3 players hit 30 or more home runs and an additional 2 hit 20 or more. Oh and let’s not forget about the addition of Mitch Moreland who blasted 22 with Texas. From top to bottom, this lineup will hit. No matter what lineup manager John Farrell send out there, it is filled with studs. They have MVP runner up Mookie Betts, veteran Dustin Pedroia, slugger Hanley Ramirez, top 3 shortstop Xander Bogaerts and now rookie of the year favorite Andrew Benintendi just to name a few. Not even Pablo Sandoval can spoil this lineup (knock on wood).
The Sox also have one of the best rotations in baseball. Rick Porcello is coming off a Cy Young win and though David Price struggled last season we expect him to bounce back big time (assuming he is healthy to begin the year). Bringing in Chris Sale is just icing on the cake for the best team in the East. The 1-3 of this rotation is arguably the best in the league but the 4 and 5 spots are a bit in question. I don’t think Steven Wright will repeat anything close to the success he had last season in 2017. Also, Eduardo Rodriguez scares me a little and I’m not sold on him being MLB ready yet. Fortunately, I think if the team gives Drew Pomeranz a starting spot he will not disappoint. Yes, he may not be as good as last season’s 3.32 implies, however given how good the front 3 in the rotation are, I think he is good enough to be one of the best #4 pitchers in the league. Craig Kimbrel did struggle last year so if there is something to be concerned about, that could be it. However, we would not be surprised by a bounce back year. The only question going into this season is if this team is going to have both the best offense and rotation in the MLB. They very well may.