2017 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers
A new year means a new draft and new sleepers and breakouts. You can’t always go by projections and stats from the previous year to draft your team because there are always guys who out perform their ranking and perform below it. From now until April, we’ll be going over some people we think you need to be aware of to make sure you draft your team as best as you can. Today, we’ll be talking about sleepers.
Every year there are some guys that very few people suspect will have great years and it comes as a surprise to most when they do. Guys like Daniel Murphy, Jean Segura, and Dj LeMahieu all had great years last year while having subpar years before or, in Murphy’s case, did something no one thought possible. This year I have a few guys I think will have much better seasons this year compared to last year and I would look out from them in the later rounds of your draft to really solidify your team as a contender.
Pitchers
1. ARI LHP Robbie Ray
2016 Stats: 8-15, 4.90 ERA, 174.1 INN, 218 SO, 3.76 FIP, 1.468 WHIP, 1.2 HR/9, 11.3 K/9
Ray’s 2015 at first glance was horrible. 4.90 ERA and 4.5 INN/G are not the kind of stats you want to see from a starting pitcher. However, sabermetrics, along with the fact that Ray is only 25, tell us that the year he had is not reflective of how he actually pitched. He ranked 30th in the NL for ERA but he was 13th in FIP. His ERA was over a point worse than his FIP and that is due to the fact that his BABIP for the season was a baffling .352. That was the worst BABIP in the majors and it was 3.7% higher than the next guy in the rankings(Michael Pineda, who we will discuss later in the list).
If Robbie Ray’s 2016 season was to be summed up in one word it would be unlucky and he’s unlikely to have another season like it again. So going into the 2017, Ray is a 25 year old starting pitcher who finished second in the National League in K/9 with an outstanding 11.3. Sure, he might be in a hitter’s park, but there is no way he will sustain a 23.3% difference between his ERA and his FIP. I have no doubt in my mind that Ray will clock in 200+ innings this year and that he’ll be up there with Kershaw and Scherzer for the lead is SO. Just how unlucky he got this past year remains to be seen, but I think Ray will be anywhere from a solid middle rotation guy to a full on Fantasy Ace.
2017 Prediction: 14-9, 3.39 ERA, 205 INN, 253 SO, 1.287 WHIP, 1.1 HR/9, 11.1 K/9
2. NYY RHP Michael Pineda
2016 Stats: 6-12, 4.82 ERA, 175.2 INN, 207 Ks, 3.79 FIP, 1.349 WHIP, 1.4 HR/9, 10.6 K/9
Every year Pineda seems to be a sleeper pick but he hasn’t panned out so far in his career. A lot of that has been due to injuries, but this past year he had his first full season in the MLB and it was also his worst year statistically. Pineda and Ray had nearly identical 2016 seasons but Ray was given the #1 spot on account of his being 25 years old. Pineda is still pretty young though and at 28, I think he will have a fantastic year. Pineda had the second highest BABIP in the majors with a .339 and it was the highest in the AL. Pineda does pitch in a hitters park but that isn’t enough for his BABIP to be as high as it is or for this FIP to stray from his ERA as much as it does.
Pineda posted the highest K/9 in the American League and his 2015 season proved that he can be a 6 INN/G type guy if he can stay healthy. It should also be noted that he was partly unlucky in 2015 as well. Although some of his struggles in 2015 were due to injury, he still posted a BABIP of .335 that year with an FIP of 3.34. Pineda will be available in the later rounds of most drafts and I highly recommend scooping him if he’s available.
2017 Prediction: 13-7, 3.52 ERA, 208 INN, 240 Ks, 10.4 K/9, 1.245 WHIP, 1.1 HR/9
3. COL RHP Jon Gray
2016 Stats: 10-10, 4.61 ERA, 168 INN, 185, 3.60 FIP, 1.262 WHIP, 1 HR/9, 9.9 K/9
Gray isn’t as much of a sleeper as the other two but he is a must draft especially in dynasty leagues. Most of his stats look pretty good outside his 4.61 ERA. His 5.8 INN/G can be improved but it’s solid as it is and his WHIP is great for a rookie in Colorado. Some question just how good he can be in the gauntlet that is Coor’s Field, but I think the sky's the limit for Gray. What Gray needs to work on is his GB rate. At first glance, it’s pretty hard to pinpoint how he had such a high ERA when his WHIP was as low as it is and when his HR/9 is solid.
His struggles came because of momentum. He seemed to get rattled pretty easily. When you go through his game logs, he seems to pitch well for a few innings but give it all away in one or two innings. Last year he was allowing hits and runs in short bunches. Sure, maybe this problem has come from just a mindset that he cannot change but I believe that he can bounce back and start to get more comfortable as a pitcher going into his sophomore season.
In regular redraft leagues, he’ll likely go between rounds 17-21 but his value is much higher than that. In dynasty leagues he should be going closer to round 10 and I think he’s even a safe bet to be picked in redrafts between rounds 13-15. While he isn’t completely a sleeper compared to guys like Pineda and Ray, he is definitely ranked a lot lower than what his value is. If you can pick up in the early to mid teens rounds, you won’t be sorry.
2017 Prediction: 11-8, 3.23 ERA, 175 INN, 197 SO, 10.1 K/9, 1.181 WHIP
Batters
1. WSH 3B Anthony Rendon
2016 Stats: .270/.348/.450/.797, 91 R, 85 RBI, 12 SB, 20 HR, 38 2B, 10 BB%, .342 wOBA, .304 BABIP, 4.1 bWAR
Rendon may not seem like a sleeper, considering just two years ago he was a second round pick coming off a top 5 MVP campaign at the age of 25. But when his 2015 season was plagued with injuries, people started to forget his name. And after what looks like a decent but pretty average 2016 campaign, combined with being two years removed from his breakout campaign, his status as a fantasy star started to fade away. Granted, his 2016 season was pretty good and he is projected to go shortly after the 10th round, but I believe that Rendon might be in for another top 5 MVP campaign for a number of reasons.
Very similar to Joey Votto, Rendon had a slow start to the 2016 season. Although he didn’t turn it around as much as Votto (which would have been nearly impossible to do anyway), he did turn it around quite a bit and he showed that he is still worthy of being considered a fantasy star. On may 9th, Rendon reached his season low for batting average at .211 and he was very close to his season low for OBP and SLG with .289 and .297 respectively. But from May 10th on, he was playing like 2014 Rendon again and fantasy owners were rejoicing. From May 10th to the end of the season, which included 124 games and 505 PAs, Rendon slashed a monstrous .287/.364/.494/.859 with 69 runs scored, 80 RBI, 19 home runs, and a K:BB rate of 96:51. Those stats are much better than his stats were in the entire 2014 season when he finished 5th in MVP voting.
If you look at his 2016 season as a whole you wouldn’t think that he was back to his superstar ways but he most certainly is, which is why he is a sleeper. There is no doubt in my mind that Rendon would at least be worthy or a 3rd or 4th round pick and the fact that he is projected to be taking later than the 10th round is absurd. If Rendon is available from the 7th round or after he is a must draft. I’m calling it now, Rendon will finish in the top 7 in NL MVP voting in 2017.
2017 Prediction: .290/.365/.502/.867, 108 R, 92 RBI, 24 HR, 15 SB, 11 BB%
2. TOR 2B Devon Travis
2016 Stats: .300/.332/.454/.785, .154 ISO, 20.1 K%, .337 wOBA, 109 wRC+, 2.9 bWAR
While Travis may be starting to get some traction as a solid fantasy 2B, he is still pretty often valued for what he did last year. He was solid but he did nothing too spectacular. Travis’ value come in when his 2015 season is put under the microscope. In 2015 he slashed a very solid .304/.361/.498/.859 with a 131 OPS+. He was extremely solid as a rookie and while he didn’t have the counting stats to get him a spot on the AL ROY list(with just 38 runs and 35 RBI in 217 ABs) he still did tremendously well and could have very well been one of the 10 best fantasy 2B in the league he had been up the whole year. He also showed a lot more plate discipline, walking 7.6% of the time compared to this past year when he walked just 4.6% of the time.
Rookie Travis is the kind of player you should be expecting from him. Not only do I consider him a sleeper but he is also a breakout candidate for 2017 and I could very well see him cracking the top 6 or 7 best second basemen this year. Considering he is expected to be taken in the 20th round or later on popular sites like ESPN, I believe he is a must draft especially for the bargain of a round you would be getting on. Drafting Travis between rounds 16-19 would be the best way to ensure you get him and he will give you much better production than anyone you could have drafted in those rounds.
2017 Prediction: .310/.372/.495/.867, 21 HR, 46 2B, 82 RBI, 85 R, 3.3 K:BB
3. PHI 3B Maikel Franco
The once average prospect from the Dominican Republic, Maikel Franco, has transformed to a young stud that is on the cusp of stardom. Franco had a fantastic rookie campaign, slashing a remarkable .280/.343/.497/.840 with an OPS+ of 130 and a K:BB of 52:25. His 15.5 K% was very solid for a rookie and his 21.7 AB/HR pointed to the fact that this guy could be hitting anywhere between 25-35 homers a year. He played almost exactly half a season that year and in that time he racked up 45 runs and 50 RBI. Franco was only showing signs that’d he’d be a star and anyone who had a problem with him only did so because they believed he had a fluke year.
And based off his sophomore season in 2016, they may be right. While his Home Runs and walks were only slightly down and his strikeout rate was only slightly up, his averages were abysmal in comparison to his rookie season. He slashed .255/.306/.427/.733 with an OPS+ of 96. Franco is really a tale of two seasons: which one was the fluke.
Well, he wouldn’t be on this list if I didn’t think his 2016 season was a fluke. For starters, the fact that his BB%, K%, and AB/HR only slightly varied from what they were in 2015. His K% was up to 16.8% from 15.5%, his BB% was down to 6.3% from 7.8%, and his AB/HR was up to 23.24. While these changes are alarming, they are only very slight and they point to the fact that Franco’s approach to the plate and his mechanics have stayed roughly the same over his first two years in the league. The variation in production may big explained in sabermetrics.
Franco’s BABIP in 2016 was .271, which is well below average and 26 points below his BABIP in 2015. Although his struggles weren’t solely due to getting unlucky, it did play a part in the difference in production over the last two years. His ISO was also down 45 points from 2015 to 2016, which is peculiar because his Home Run production was only down slightly. This was because he was not hitting doubles even remotely close to the rate he was hitting them in 2015. In 2015 he hit 22 doubles in 335 PA but in 2016, he hit 23 doubles in 630 PA. It might have been do in part to over production in 2015 and in part to getting unlucky, but his biggest question mark is how often he will hit doubles from here on out.
Franco’s 2016 saw him struggle to hit for average and saw his power go down quite a bit. However, all other aspects of his game seemed to stay right on par with his 2015 campaign. His .271 BABIP in 2016 makes me not too worried about his ability to hit for average. That BABIP is unsustainable and I am expecting him to at least return to being a 280 average hitter. That would also bring his OBP almost to where it was in 2015, seeing as his BB% did not go down very much. His power will be similar to 2015 but it’s unknown how often he’ll hit doubles. I think his poor BABIP had a part to play in the difference in production of doubles and I am expecting him to hit around 35 doubles this year.
Franco is a sleeper because of his poor 2016 season and he will be available very late in drafts. I believe that his 2016 season was a fluke and it does not represent Franco well. However, if it turns out that Franco is more of a 25 doubles a year type player, his value brings him much closer to his value this past year. All in all, I think Franco is worth the pick in the late stages of your draft because his upside is tremendous and his floor the season he just had.
2017 Prediction: .283/.348/.485/.833, 34 2B, 27 HR, 91 RBI, 71 R, 2.3 K:BB